Bets on over 3.5 and 4.5
Large factors, as we know, can often be overstated in the office. Who puts on the Kelly criterion know that this strategy makes sense to play the odds more than 2. The explanation is very simple – the higher the ratio, the more likely that he significantly overstated.
Moreover, the office is still as it inflated. Because it exposes them not for the actual display of forces, but in order to properly distribute the profit. In fact, the coefficients show how distributed bets on events of a match. Roughly speaking, the more money is put on the same event, the lower will be the coefficient. Dogovornyak and determined, by the rapid drop of the coefficient.
So, the game high ratios can lead to plus for long distances. This strategy for betting on the over 3.5 and 4.5. There are ratios greater than 2 (2 to 5). How to define events for betting in the office? It is necessary to consider how teams score and concede.
Taken into account in the first place, zabyvaemo-transmittance for the home team in home games and a guest to the guest and second is the overall statistics of teams in all games. To view the statistics it’s best to find a convenient site on which there are separate information on scored and conceded goals of the teams home and away.
The method of determining excessive factors
Before each bet, you must divide the total number of home matches the number of matches with the total is more than the home team (get one number). Next, divide the total number of matches of the guest team the number of matches played on the over. Having 2 numbers, calculate the average. Turns out your rate, which should be compared to the coefficient if it is greater, then bet. (the principle is the same as in the Kelly criteria ). You can also get a number that takes into account ALL games teams.
Actually you should make a table where you can enter the number of matches teams played on totalum and there to get the final ratio. The second question is not less important – how much to bet? Or rather, what percentage of Bank to stake. The bet amount depends directly on the ratio. The bet amount is determined by the formula , where S is the percentage of the pot, a K – factor of the offices. If you take that factor of 2 percent from the Bank is 5 %, then, substituting this number, you can get the rates for the other coefficients. Substituting different values of the coefficients, we get a convenient table of rate values that depend on coefficients. The table looks thus:
Rates for this table should be supplemented, using the formula above. Because you are betting on the over 3.5 and 4.5, the values of the coefficients will be in the range from 2 to 6. It is therefore necessary to Supplement the table these values up to each tenth. That is, they must be such: 2,1; 2,2; 2,3…2,9 — 5,1…5,9. More detailed information on the amount of bets you can see from the article Marina “the dependence of the odds and the amount bet from the odds”. 2010
Important points when betting on totals
An important point when betting on totals is the goal difference of the teams. Ideal the team, in which the difference of scored and missed goals is zero. That is, if there are two outsider that the calculations are for rates, but goal difference they have, for example, and 6-23 8-22, it is clear that to score they do not know and bet for the total is in this case irrelevant. Conversely, if the teams score a lot and concede very few goals, they also should not take.
It is also important to take into account the last 5 games of the teams. In the table to calculate your ratio, you must first enter the values of the totals for all the games, and then for the last 5. For the last 5 games you can just visually estimate how much of a team they scored and missed.
Here is a concrete example is the Austrian League, division 1. Play SV horn and Hartberg. Horn 4 games played total goals over 3.5, 1 over. Hartberg – 3 over, 4 – under. Get for owners the ratio is 1.25, and for guests of 2.33. Taking the average, we get a ratio of 1.79. If we assume that the ratio for all games teams, it is of 1.71. Office gives a factor of 2.1. In the last five games to see that team in 3 games of 5 shot total. As you can see, the coefficient is slightly higher, so it makes sense to put. If keff would be less than 1.7, betting makes no sense.
There is a need to maintain statistics on Championships. This is best done in Excel. Roughly speaking, to determine the championship, where best to put. On totals it is better to put Championships in the Netherlands (1st and 2nd League), Sweden (1 and 2 League), Austria (1 and 2 League), Denmark (1 and 2 League), North. Ireland, Wales, Scotland (lower leagues).
Another point when betting on totals is the quality of the field that depends on the weather conditions. In bad weather it is better to refrain from betting, since if the field is bad, the score is much more difficult to defend easier.
A few words about the game on inflated odds
To play on high odds is not only on the totals are. It makes sense to pay attention to the live betting matches. There are more players that put of excitement, especially without delving into the statistics as the game progresses, the office anyhow, what is driving the players when they have the passion, flair or voice over, as long as the odds were correct, to guaranteed to get your percentage. And they are consistent with the statistics exactly during the game it does not matter. You have the same statistics and should be of interest.
One must drive across the table (and there should be several different types of bets) match details on those events on which you bet, getting “their” coefficients. Then compare them with the coefficients of the offices, identifying inflated, and then put use the information on table stakes. It is clear that this is all you need to do quickly and simultaneously without a hitch on the machine, as they say.
No need to remind you that ALL data on the rates required in the table, and there you should see the balance at the moment. It is desirable that was also a graph showing the change in the balance.
Additionally, to download: table in Excel, the article is talking about
Bets on total goals in detail
TB 0.5 TB 1 TB 1.5 TB 2 TB 2.5 TB 3 TB 3.5 TB 4 TB 4.5 TB 5
TM 0.5 TM 1.5 TM 1 TM 2 TM 2.5 TM 3 TM 3.5 TM 4 TM 4.5 TM 5
To the theme: Asian total Corridor totals, Bets on individual averages of teams and players
Suggest reading: the 8 principles of a successful player, How to win in sports betting and earn 21 tips for betting on football, 5 mistakes of a beginner, Where do sports betting
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