Strategy games on the betting exchange Betfair. Part III. Betting on horse racing

Game strategy on the betting exchange Betfair. Jump

In this article we will talk about betting on horse racing. To succeed under this strategy You need 2 things:

  1. Learn to master the interface exchange Betfair;
  2. To accurately set the clock on Your computer.

Few of us are keen on the races, it is rather fun English, but the penetration of our planet and is here reflected: recently put on a horse named Petrovich – a sense of patriotism leaped. All at least once on TV I saw horse-races on the racecourses and the picture itself is every. A couple of times observed in the programs of the scandals surrounding the race, such as the fact that the jockey was beaten with baseball bats because he is at the finish line reined in his horse – what can you do, the money here is decent rotate. I must say immediately: jockey, trainer, etc. involved persons is not forbidden to put “FOR” victory of his horse, but absolutely can not put the — “AGAINST” the logic is clear.

To finish a vague theme: we’re inside (information from the organizers of the race) to put will not, because here to inside the least really. Let’s start from simple logic: insider are available for 1-2 people and they know how to dispose of them. All the others wasting your time, trying something to find out.

So, we are ordinary speculators we are interested in quotations on the fluctuations which we can earn. If You happen to previously had to deal with speculation, You will be somewhat simpler but in any case, to understand the meaning of exchange games on Betfair just imagine that we buy and sell goods, and money. For example, we buy dollars at 1.55 euros per dollar, and sell at 1.3. I.e., we take at a high rate (in the case of Betfair this is a factor), and give at a low rate (factor). The difference is our profit.

So, agreed with the terms: rate “Over” means that we take, and bet — we give.

Racing “Betfair” available all day: races in Australia (AUS), South Africa (RSA), UK, Europe, Emirates (UAE), United States (US), and again in Australia.

We will only be interested in races in the UK, because these markets are the most resourceful and, accordingly, the most profitable speculations. Races there are 364 days a year (with a break only on December 25).

  • Every day on “Betfair” are races with several British racecourses: from min. 3 Monday-Tuesday up to a max of 6-7 Friday-Saturday.
  • A day at each racetrack runs 6-8 races, so every day we have from 20 to 50 markets that interest us.
  • The start time of the British races that are present on “Betfair”, is selected in such a way as to avoid simultaneous runs on different racetracks.
  • On the same Racecourse the time between races – 30 minutes, but may vary in the range of 5-10 minutes.
  • Day races start around 16.00-17.00 GMT depending on the schedule. These races last approximately till 20.00-20.30 GMT.
  • Usually from Tuesday to Saturday “Betfair” gives evening races with 1-2 courses: these races start at 21.20-21.50 GMT and ends after midnight Moscow time.

So we have every day in the afternoon, a few dozen markets, each with millions of revolutions, in each market the most active phase of the trade begins 15 minutes before the start of the race, and every market is unique in essence.

Visually: the Most convenient to get to the race markets, selecting a panel of sports “horse Racing — today”: After that we open the list of available markets for horse racing in chronological order. We will be interested only in those markets that are not worth brackets, for example, is the market “22.20 Wolv”:

By the way, 22.20 this is the start of the race on Your time zone. “Betfair” so my dear, that specifies the starting time in Your time zone. At least I have it.

Wolv – the abbreviated name of the racetrack.

Below the red line are the markets Wolv (AvB), Wolv (Dist) etc bets on this race, but for me they are minor, is important to me is

22.20 Wolv is the betting market on the winner of the race. However:

(AvB) – rates who higher will be the results of the race;

(Dist) – the distance the horses of the backlog from one place to another for official. The results of the race;

(Place) – whether the horse is among the first 2, 3 or 4 (in different races in different ways);

(W/o Fav) – rates without taking into account the favorite, i.e. who will be the winner, unless you consider 1 or several favorites;

there are more varieties of race markets, but I’m only interested in the winner market.

Now let’s look at the interface of the horse racing market:

At the top we see the abbreviated name of the Racecourse, the start time of the race (Your time zone) and then is not a very familiar set of letters and numbers. The decryption of abbreviations type Hcap, Mdn Stake or I was not engaged and not specifically looking for, because trade is not affected. There are races “smooth”, there are obstacles. There are varieties of start. It’s all there, but it is not necessary for trading.

A value of type 7f to explain it is necessary: f – Furlong. 1 furlong = 201.168 m 0.201 km, in other words, 1 mile (1m) = 8f (furlongs). 1 mile = 5280 feet = 1760 yards.

There are races:

5f, 6f, 7f is the sprint.

1m–2m – medium distances; for example if the top of the inscription 1m2f race on the 1 mile 2 Furlong.

2m-4m – stayers races.

For time run 1 mile (1m) horses run about 2 minutes.

sometimes when referring to the distance there are feet (ft) and yards (yd).

If you click on the words “guide to the jumps” below the name of the race, it will open in a new window trail. page:

Here you can find a lot of useful information on the races in the coming days, racecourses, horses, jockeys and trainers, and the balance before the races and results of races. Please be aware that here only GMT!

Suggest activate tick “For and against” and “market Depth” and check the “Betfair starting price” will not activate.

Now back to the interface of the race to “Betfair” and talk about horses: the horse’s name written in bold, below, in regular font – the name of the jockey. To the right of the icon to open the chart of variation of KF. is the number of saddle blanket is the number on the saddle of the horse, its number in the race:

To the right the number of the saddle cloth is the lot of a cabin, if you start from the booths is performed. The number of the saddle cloth is not associated with the draw of the cabin. And to the right the color of the jockey. If we hover the mouse on the horse’s name – in the pop-up window, we can see the shape of the horse:

Important parameters:

  • age (example horse 6 years old) – long distance running better more experienced horses. Sprint more for the young. The oldest horse in the race I saw 13 years of age.

  • weight (11-4) in the English system of measures. For the sprint light is preferable for long distances – the heavy

  • shape: talking about how the horse spent the last jump. The sign “-”

    separates one season from another. The sign “/” indicates that the horse missed the season. A “0” indicates that in the race a horse ran below 9-th place either 10th or 11th… in General was unimportant result. The big letters say on the various failures in the race: F – fallen U – unseated rider, R – came out to start, etc. Any letter suggests that the horse is for some reason not finished, this is a negative point in her form. In our example, the horse last year was 2nd, then 7th, then 9th place, and this season, the 4th, 5th and the last race (48 days ago) – fell. When the horse has a number of good prizes and victories and it last ran a few days ago is very good.

  • the requirement of a jockey: the jockey is the brand new opportunity to lighten the weight, but it is better to “reverse” to speak. The requirement of a jockey: 0 suggests that the jockey is experienced and this is good.

In other words, information about horses compare with other horses, so it is necessary to quickly run through the horses in the race – it’s fast, you can do “automatically” when nabete hand.

So we gradually come to the essence of the system “Betfair+”. Obviously, the main turnover of money is going on the favorites. Outsiders not interested in. Is divided 3 kinds of racing markets, depending on the number of favorites:

  1. Market 1 a pronounced favorite. This so-called “one-man”: the bulk of the money will spin on this horse.

    Defined simply: if the difference between the KF. favorite and KF. 2nd horse more 1 – this is the market with 1 favorite. And the greater the difference, the more pronounced this type of market. This type of market is characterized by a decrease in KF. on favorite to start the race. Here is a typical example of the “theater of one actor”:

  2. market with 2 favorites (“pair”), the difference in KF. between them is small, and the rest they broke away in KF. at a decent distance.

    This market is characterized by the fact that KF. may go down as one of the favorites, and the two favorites at the same time as the main money goes on these 2 horses.

    Here is an example of “pairs”:

  3. Market with a few favorites (“crowd”) with slight differences in KF. between them.

    This market is chaotic, and only 2-3 minutes before the start of the race from the “crowd” can stand out 1 favorite, KF. which falls before the beginning of the race. An example of the “crowd”:

So, 15 minutes before the start of the race we opened the market to jump, identified what type of market. Quickly ran on the main horses in the race. Compared the age, weight, shape and time of the last race of horses. Next step – open a graph of the ratio. If the graph is decreasing and the “one-man” remains quite a bit before deciding on a rate For it. If the favorite schedule increases – will have about this market to forget and move on to explore the market, you should never play on the slide with the growth of KF. and Vice versa. It is not necessary to run towards the engine, the casualties can not be avoided. There is a small nuance that may be present on the charts of KF. is the “spikes”:

“Spike-down”. The area in the oval is the area of the initial formation of KF – it is uninformative. Subsequent “spike–low” provides an additional incentive to bet.

“Spike-up”: Again, the original area of formation of KF. uninformative, but the subsequent massive “Spike-top” proposes to abandon this market: who knows not decided here whether the owner of the horse or jockey to play a cruel joke? Moreover, the horse is clear favourite with odds. 1.25 – if she doesn’t win, someone will raise good money.

So if we have a pronounced favorite in good shape and the curve of the incident – remains one step prior to a decision on the rate “For” at the current KF. But at the same time defining where the output at which the turn to bet Against. Here the ordinary bookmaker, we suggest to use Bet365, where the horses run in the spotlight. There is also not forget to include the decimal KF.

Now a small note: bookmakers obviously can’t afford KF. Higher than exchange – this is obvious, because otherwise there may come a situation instant plugs but to approach the threshold KF. can easily. Because the threshold that we see in KF. – this is a bet, but more favorable than on the exchange, as there is no fee.

Let’s take some examples:

So, we had the favorite in good shape on a falling graph with a couple of “ship-bottom” to KF. 2, the current KF. was 2.24:

Bet365 showed the level of KF. level 2 – 2.1:

Was made the lay bet with odds. 2.24, after which it was exhibited proposal, “Against” 2.12, while the winning amount was approximately balanced.

It was logical:

Opposite example:

The situation on Bet365 shows equilibrium KF. exchanges and bookmakers, there is no clearance to drop KP. Besides favorite not too explicit, just 4 more horses:

The situation has a tendency to increase KF. favorite, confirmed:

or another example:

tightly bookmakers have lined up to 2.5 favorite:

and now as well-read why the graph bounces from 2.5:

I hope I simply explained to You so many things made sense:

However, it often happens that the bookies have to reduce KF., since the fall of KF. on the favorite of the serious. So I took a little bit:

and while for You the screenshots prepared, could take much more:

However, there is no need to regret the lost profits. And I acted on it right – the main thing in this. All the money in the world to make impossible.

And finally, another example, is interesting primarily from a technical point of view:

Have a favorite with shooting schedule and a gradual decrease of bookmakers to the level of 2.63:

by the way, please note that at the level of 2.42 exhibited a barrier of more than 3K$. As the market is only beginning to warm up (2 hours before the race it was) – this amount is substantial for the moment. Conclusion: now KF. not overcome 2.42, 2.64 vs but you can put:

Is placed lay bet at 2.84:

and exhibited the proposal, “against” 2.64 balancing profit:

Then offer “Vs” 2.64 translates into the category of proposals that remain on the market, if the offer is not accepted by the time of the jump, when the market goes in-play:

This is done so that if there is an unplanned network outage, and when we started the race, bet will be not even concluded, and until access is restored, the market goes in-play, in this case, the offer will remain on In-play and it has a sufficient probability to close to in-play. Here, everything is logically ended.

Remember, I asked You at the beginning to accurately set the clock? If the market is not worked out and my rate “Vs” not paired at the beginning of the race — I was in any case closed a lay bet at the current KF. once the time on my clock becomes equal to the start time of the race. To do this, I cancel my bet “Vs” not in pair and bet Against, according to the current KF. Whether loss or profit. In-play I don’t play, because this is a big risk: imagine that Your horse is at the start of a leg tuck – KF. just go to 1000 and never come back – in other words, you lose the whole pot. In-play this is not trading, it’s pure luck. Surely, you wish to try these things if you want the In-play to participate, remember my words, save your money.

The first part (about football).

The second part (tennis, basketball, biathlon).

Suggest reading: the 8 principles of a successful player, How to win in sports betting and earn 21 tips for betting on football, 5 mistakes of a beginner, Where do sports betting

All of the articles. Table of contents

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