Bets on outsiders (underdog)
The majority of bettors place their bets mainly on favourites of the meetings. To put on outsiders is considered bad form, at least they made a positive start.
A huge advantage of betting on outsiders — often does not need to win. If the average odds of your bet will be equal to 4, it is enough for success and one-third of the rates for a positive result. But to get my hopes up is not necessary, the rare outsider can win so often => you need to find suitable events and to correctly assess the probability of sensation.
cases when betting on underdogs are justified:
1. The inflated ratio
There are two reasons:
- the bookmaker incorrectly calculate the probability of victory of the outsider;
- players will be overrated favorite and will massively make bets bookmakers react by raising the coefficient of the outsider in order to reduce risks, that the hands of the fans of this strategy.
2. Increased motivation of the team
In any sport there are bitter rivals, fiercely opening to the match. Even if they are in different ends of the standings, outsider ready to take points away from their opponents in the spermatazoa. Often Derby are due to geographical proximity. A classic example of English football: “Chelsea” vs “West ham United”.
Is tournament goals made and needs to win favorite statistics, but the underdog can still solve their local problems, in particular to maintain residence in the elite division or get into the European cups. In this scenario, it is also possible the team on the verge of possibilities.
It is also important cash incentives players suddenly become generous coming from the management of the club-the outsider. However, such information is not always available in the media.
3. Favorite often stumbles in the games against weaker opponents
Strong teams sometimes underestimate the opponents and resulting in a loss of points. Underestimate the possibility of the outsider and the coaching staff favorite. It is often exhibited polarisierung composition, is given a chance to prove himself to the young players. The lack of basic structure gives a chance underdog. Moreover, the underdog going into the match with a favorite responsibly. Players try to prove their worth and attract the attention of leading clubs.
Matches against outsiders are often ignored by fans. They rarely have tournament value. The greatest interest the fans are showing to a principal rivalries.
4. The contractual nature of the meeting
Match-fixing in conspiracy theories exist and are played regularly. To identify fixed to a 100% match profane unrealistic, but a number of characteristics can hint what to look for in a line.
- head coach of the team or its key players are absent.
- frisky-randomly changing coefficients;
- bookies lower the maximum bet amount to the players.
The strategy of betting on underdogs in football
The most attractive sport to bet on of underdogs is football. A large number of matches is combined with high dispersion coefficients. To begin players need to determine the tournaments in which he wants to put on underdogs. Often the sensation with outsiders happen in the English Premier League and the Champions League.
In English football the frequent misfires of favourites related to their banal fatigue. The tough schedule combined with the matches in the tournament forces coaches to go to squad rotation.
In the Champions League sensation occur due to the financial interest of outsiders. Many clubs from Eastern Europe, fall in the group stage of the Champions League, “survive” thanks to the positive results in the main European tournament. In 2015/16 every victory in the Champions League will bring the club 1.5 million euros.
For betting on outsiders in football a good idea to have accounts in several bookmakers. Differences in coefficients may reach 0.5-5, while the betting favorites they are minimal (0.01-0.15).
Insights for betting on outsiders
Betting on outsiders is in the tournament, constantly having different class of participants. For example, the football world Cup or the Champions League often give sensational results.
Bets on underdogs in the regular national Championships are justified by careful analysis of each match, not blind bets on a weaker team.
Despite the high margin of bookmakers in matches with obvious outsiders, to really develop a successful betting strategy and continually adjusted in the light of new realities is key to the success of bets on underdogs.
Read about betting on: on corner, half-match, card, value betting, live goal
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