Betting on football: the myth of the effect of the new coach
Many fans believe that the replacement is not very successful specialist for more qualified will inevitably lead to better results for the team. In some cases, this turns out to be true, but studies show that the relationship between the performance of the team and the new coach is a myth.
The period in which, under the leadership of the new coach of the football club has spent more than six games, called “honeymoon.” Of course, the players want to impress the new coach with his play, especially if it’s a charismatic coach. But after being passed a dozen rounds, the team begins to demonstrate not as solid indicators. This may indicate that the influence of the new coach was short. If to speak about long-term prospects, the change of coach does not contribute to the results.
Whatever strong personality was not the coach, the quality of the game and the performance indicators after changes in the coaching staff still will return to the average level. If more accurate to describe this process, it is regression to the mean, thus any specific factors do not influence it. After all, if water is bottled on the same level, and emotions associated with the arrival of the new coach, eventually cease. The players stay in the team the same, so the results to return to the old values. Coaches get fired not because they do not meet the required qualifications, then they are accompanied by bad luck. The quality of the games teams coaches have no influence. One of the Dutch football experts Ter Wiel stated that the selection occurs. As a result of the best specialists go to work in top clubs and less successful ones lead the weak team. After the dismissal of coach the club usually looking for a coach with similar financial requirements.
What do the bettors in this situation? Bookmakers enough to actively change the odds for the team, headed by a new specialist. However, the reduction coefficients on a given team does not mean that the probability of winning increases. The change of the coefficients in this case can be considered a random process, so to catch the bookies. Of course, among the coaches are great motivators and strategists, but the quality of their work will be shown not at once.