Betting on baseball (MLB)

Baseball (MLB)

Every capper or just a gambler, regularly betting trying to satiate myself for the summer. Traditionally, it is almost a blank time for team sports and popular leagues. Because almost everyone tries their hand at predictions tennis or baseball, the two main summer destinations beckon. About tennis already got something, because I propose to talk about the team direction baseball.

Baseball, something exotic game for us, but very popular in the United States. MLB is the oldest sports American League, has a huge size the regular season (162 games for each team), short of the playoffs, and six months (April-October) rates. In my opinion, sufficient arguments to try to betting on MLB. I’m going to share with you my experience and observations, to warn about the classic mistakes, the nuances, which is enough once you enter into the world of baseball.

So, there are two schools of Analytics and forecasts at the baseball school and pitching school hitters. The pitching school is based on the analysis of power pitchers, from which a prediction for the match. School of chiterstva assumes that the line for the match already includes the analysis of the starting pitchers, and is a more serious approach to the analysis of other lines of the team, as well as additional factors that could affect the balance of power.

It is difficult to say which method is more effective, but personally I still push off from the pitchers. Though, because I’m from the United States is, and correctly assess the whole roster (composition) all lines of the team this particular kind of sport for me is much more difficult.

Bookie

It is important to choose a bookmaker that gives not only maximum ratio, and indicates the pitcher in the line. The bookmaker, which indicates the pitcher, in case of no output at the start will give the refund rate. The value of a starting pitcher is difficult to overestimate, no matter what school betting baseball itself is not classified, but the change of a starting pitcher can just rewrite the scenario and the outcome of the meeting. The Internet is good enough bookmakers taking bets on MLB baseball. As examples of 1xbet betting, Unibet and others.

Favorites

Usually new players coming into baseball, have probably heard about the Yankees. Recognized brand the world of baseball, a successful sport and marketing project and a real monster of American baseball. Over time, added a couple of favorites-leaderboard based on the current season of the Coefficients is small, and the likelihood of their passage is even lower than in football with the usual “MU”, “Reals” and other. That is, in the long run betting on the favorite, the worst thing you can think of. Simple math – season leaders have no more of 60-62% with average winning odds in the area of 1,62-of 1.73, which at best will only cover costs. However, none of the underdog, almost never drops below 35% wins, and this in such a long regular season, not so little – at least 50 wins.

So that play only favorites in American baseball, however, as in other sports, is not justified in the long run. This sooner or later, everybody who bets in baseball, with the goal to make money, and, not looking up from the principle of the game on the favorite, trying to work with minus handicap. Classic offer in baseball (-1,5) and (+1,5), respectively. It is generally assumed that the major favorites have to defeat your opponent and a -1.5-point handicap, making the ratio more attractive, justified. But I believe that this strategy is very insidious and dangerous in baseball, explain why. The number of major League baseball games ending with a difference of one point is not as small as it may seem at first glance. Both earlier and now the number of games with the advantage of one of the teams in one run significantly and does not drop the level below 20 %. However, there has been a trend in recent years, a greater dispersion of results due to increased roster and game favorites and stagnation of a number of teams in the basement of the League. Previously, between 2001 and 2004 games ended with a difference of one point was always in the range of 25-27 percent in the last three years the figures are somewhat different:

  • 2008 22,2%
  • 2009 20,14%
  • 2010 20,65%

From these figures it is necessary to allocate the main thing – there are teams that finished games with a difference of one point below the average 20%, so only those team leaders and outsiders of the League, the teams that are on view at the bookmaker and is highly overrated. The numbers will not lead to and so as not to overload the material, but it is easy to verify promonitoriv the line and standings of games during the month.

There is another nuance, which is to say to the players is that home teams in baseball are the favorites, which leads to the fact that the home team have odds of -1.5 points. If the home team is winning in the 9th inning, the bottom of the ninth inning simply not played – the game is over and no possible extra points will not. Accordingly, a possible break of a handicap simply arrives because of the specifics of the game and account management.

Underdog

There is a system of play and underdog, which is based on the opposite – once the game is on the favorite is not justified, then play the outsider. If you look at the standings, as a rule, neither team has not lost more than 60% of the matches. That means that at least two of the five matches were won by the underdogs. But outsiders outsiders alike, as well as favorites. Players often remember the commands that well or played bad in the last month or the season. And on the thumb keep hitting the line, but in baseball, the development is very dynamic, responsive to change accounts, respectively, otherwise the loss can not be avoided.

Some players in the strategy try well known and so popular Dogon winning streak against the outsiders, hoping that they will not be able to give a serious series wins in a row. Vain, though, because you will have to play favorites at low prices handicap(-1.5) can only aggravate the consequences, and most importantly, even the regular season to 162 games gives their finest hour for all teams. There probably is sense to play the team “in the fire”, given that every team produces at least one series of 4-5 wins and more. Yes, and in General fans of catching in baseball’s just nothing to do. Almost any team is capable of delivering at least once per season and loose a winning streak and beginning to catch the command to “return” during this series you can “merge” the whole pot! The peculiarity different from all sports. Different session players for each series give actually three different roster (composition) of one command and is equivalent to three different teams. And who are you going to catch up in this case? There is a practice of catching a specific pitcher to defeat and victory, but there is a catch. A rare situation when the pitcher plays the game until the end, leaving then delivery can ruin the entire game, and the statistics of the pitcher will go exactly the result, and not the team. In the end, pitching statistics like caught up, and the outcome of the game might not.

There is another cunning strategy game on the underdog, based on the sieve of underdogs. That is to not play everybody in outsiders, and selectively based on some criteria (assessment of the strength of the pitching of the favorite, do not bet against the hot favourite – more than 4 wins, not to put on a cold team to more than 4 lesions). This strategy, in addition to the listed criteria is proposed and a limit of ratios from 2.0 to 2.5, arguing that if the quotes in the command exceed the boundaries defined, there is reason that the team has disassembled or obvious reason for the defeat. On paper this strategy looks solid, encouraging and sends a positive way. But, directly in the action it works not so convincing and in the end, in the long run gives a minus. Tested this strategy for two years, and twice the result was negative.

Note: the continuation of the article

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